With a full-blown slump but months away, the Queen is setting the trend for the nation, as she has in past times of trouble.

Her natural frugality certainly chimes with the times we’re living through. Early on in the credit crunch, the Queen was ahead of the curve when she cancelled her Diamond Wedding party at the Ritz last March.

Mary Riddell writes in the Telegraph that the Prime Minister, Gordon Brown, hopes the Queen will bring back the feelgood factor to the nation by demonstrating how to be cheerful in a depression. Stoicism through thick and thin has always been HM’s strong point. The PM has clearly noticed.

Gerald Warner, writing in his blog, makes an interesting point: “Gordon Brown wants the Queen and the royal family to lead the nation in hair-shirt frugality, to give an example to the rest of us in these poverty-stricken times. Which is strange, considering it is only three days since Gordon threw good money after bad by doubling the National Debt to £1 trillion [$1.5tr].”

The Prime Minister is, says Warner, hiding behind the Queen’s skirt.

Constitutional expert Peter Hennessey reinforces the point, “The Queen does not need Number 10 to make her into an effective focus for the country. She is such a remarkable figure, she naturally fulfils that function. The Queen has this great gift for adapting without going for fads or fashions. She does not need telling what is required to do. She just does it.”

However, Mary Riddell reports, “At Number 10, where the House of Windsor’s tactics are being followed with interest, Mr Brown is said to speak ‘in affectionate terms’ of his meetings with the Queen.”

The Queen has apparently ordered all senior members of the Royal Family only to be present at low-key occasions and to avoid glossy or glamorous events.

Prince William and Prince Harry have been asked to cleave to the military, while avoiding nightclubs and big, brassy charitable parties.

Royal women will be expected to recycle their outfits, something Princess Anne has been doing for decades. All in all, the Royals will set the style and tone for the hard times to come, with the Queen, as always, way out in front.

I confess to a deep sense of foreboding as I write these words. For we are now being fed a picture of just how much the Monarchy will change under the reign of the present Prince of Wales.

Prince Charles holding a Kendo stick in Japan

Monarchies need to adapt and change, of course, and when a new personality ascends the throne it may be the ideal moment to introduce difficult and systemic changes into the old institution.

These innovations may come sooner than we think. There is a whisper going around that the Queen may pass the mantle of Monarchy to her son and heir when he is 65 — a mere five years from now. Last week we heard her refer to his future Kingship in public for the first time.

As if to drive the point home, a steady stream of leaks and suggestions is being released by credible media figures.

The country has been informed that Charles will keep his promise to drop the “Defender of the Faith” subtitle, for the looser, and therefore less-Christian, “Defender of Faith”. Any old faith will do, it seems, as long as you believe in something.

The former Archbishop of Canterbury, George Carey, spoke out recently against “destructive changes” being made to the old constitution, which has proved its worth over time. He clearly senses a disestablishment of the Church of England.

Last week, a close friend of the Prince, Jonathan Dimbleby, suggested that Charles could become an “active” King, speaking out on issues close to his heart, like climate change, education, architecture and conservation. The Irish and German Presidents were singled out as examples he may follow. Although they are neutral politically, they do get involved in day-to-day discussions on policy matters.

Prince Charles already boycotts Chinese leaders because of their treatment of Tibet. He once called them “appalling old waxworks”. Imagine the political fury if he refuses to attend a State banquet for the President of one of the world’s most powerful trading nations, as he has in the past?

The difference between the Queen and the Presidents of Ireland and Germany is that they are elected by a franchise of the whole population. They have legitimacy for activism — and therefore unpopularity — within their constitution.

British Constitutional Monarchs are expected to follow the convention that they can speak out in private at the weekly meeting with the Prime Minister and warn of future consequences. Other than that, the role is purely ceremonial, except as a last resort longstop against tyranny.

If a King Charles were to take on a Prime Minister directly, he would be swiftly marginalized by crafty and practised political infighters. He wouldn’t stand a chance. His humiliation would be complete, especially under a Labour government.

The Monarchy will not last long under those circumstances. Everything the present Queen has built up as the “unifier of the nation” would be lost. Politicians would begin by destroying what is left of our constitutional checks and balances — as Blair and Brown have gradually done for the past 10 years.

The package of measures Charles’s team of helpers are placing in the media, combined with the almost certain crowning of Camilla, could result in a serious dip in popularity for the Monarchy.

Other countries, over which the Queen now reigns, may decide to dump the Crown as well, leading to a crisis for the new King that could be impossible to contain.

His friend the 14th Dalai Lama was prophesied to be the last leader of Tibet. He is now an exile outside his country.

Will Prince Charles be the last Monarch of the United Kingdom, itself under threat from Scottish nationalism?

There are dangerous shoals ahead for the Prince. Shoring up what he has got may be a better path to Kingship than challenging the people’s representatives. In the end, influence is a more durable form of governance than power itself.

What are Prince William’s motives for choosing the RAF over Kate Middleton?

Whichever way you look at it his motivation for deciding on four more years in the military is hard to read. The choice is made more puzzling by his apparent sudden change of mind.

Just a few weeks ago William seemed set to spend 2009 learning about constitutional affairs, interspersed with some Royal engagements and other duties. Although it was never explicitly spelled out, most observers had pencilled in a summer wedding with Kate Middleton.

Then, anonymous voices claiming inside knowledge began to put it about that marriage had been postponed for 18 months at least. No reason was given, which made the claims less credible at the time.

Last week the absent bits of the jigsaw puzzle fell into place. William had decided to train for the RAF’s Search and Rescue unit and was intent on becoming a helicopter pilot on active duty around Britain’s shores and wild places.

So what were his motivations, and how does Kate feel about his apparent desertion? The obvious reason is that he enjoys the excitement of service life.

It may also be true that he views marriage as a millstone round his neck. However much he likes being with Kate, it may simply be “the institution, stupid”.

It’s possible that only one of these motives is the real one. Which one would be interesting to know. There’s a lesser probability that both figured in his decision, in which case maybe the French Foreign Legion would be a better choice.

If the first reason is the primary cause of his sudden change of heart, it holds up to the world that he may never be ready to settle down into the boring routine of marriage and Royal duty — at least until he is considerably older.

An even longer life for his grandmother, and an extended reign for his father, might be very welcome to the reluctant Prince.

I’m also beginning to think that Kate may share those views, although not to the extent of being separated from him for the best part of four years.

She may recognize that you have to swallow some bad stuff in order to realize your dreams. As a middle-class female she probably has a better grasp on the realities, like the necessity to compromise a little and settle for what you get.

William, though, as a Prince born to greatness and worldwide fame, may just believe he can have it all without any diversions down unwanted paths and alleyways.

There’s a disconnect somewhere here. Let’s hope neither of the two personalities in this affair gets hopelessly hurt.

It may be that a Christmas announcement is still in the schedule for a May or June wedding next year. In which case the trajectory remains intact. But some sources are warning this is not so, and normal life has been postponed in the foreseeable future.

Since the future of the Monarchy rests on their shoulders, it would be of great assistance if someone known and credible explained the reasons behind this radical change of tack to the great British public.

The News of the World has an article in today’s edition about Prince William’s “future training” to be King. If we bear in mind that the past three years of military service were a crucial part of that preparation, there’s nothing really new in this piece.

Normally the NOTW doesn’t have the best reputation for Royal stories, but this assessment has authority as it’s written by Robert Jobson, author of the excellent book William’s Princess.

There’s a broad hint in the piece that the Prince may not have time for a wedding next year because of his busy schedule learning to be a Monarch. Every year will be a hectic one for William from now on, so this is a bit disingenuous. He will have to find time somewhere along the line. Next year will probably be less arduous than most simply because he will be learning rather than doing the job full-time. It’s much easier to find a gap in a period of study than when carrying out engagements planned two years in advance.

Jobson lists William’s new schedule:

* Working at different Whitehall departments and being shown the inner workings of government by Privy Councillors, including former Prime Minister John Major.

* Lessons in the job of being King by constitutional experts such as Oxford don Dr Vernon Bogdanor.

* Learning to manage the Duchy of Cornwall, the landed trust he will inherit from Charles when his father becomes King.

* Running the Sandringham Estate — a job his grandfather Prince Philip has been doing for years.

* Solo tours of the Commonwealth, taking some of that burden from the Queen.

An aide is quoted as saying, “For the first time we have an established Monarch, an active and experienced Heir to the Throne and in Prince William and Prince Harry real youth appeal. The Prince Of Wales has had a long time to prepare for what will probably be a relatively short reign. Prince William has effectively got to get to grips with the job very quickly. It is a very different world to when the Queen ascended the Throne and she wants him to be prepared for what is to come. William too wants to make sure he is ready for any challenge that’s thrown at him.”

All this we have known for some time. Most of these activities can be accomplished fairly quickly, given the knowledge already gained over 26 years of being a Prince while watching his father and his grandmother performing their duties. Much of what William will need will be on-the-job experience — actually doing it for himself.

There has also been talk of him working in a newspaper office. It will be an asset for him to experience the difficulties involved in gathering, fact-checking, writing and publishing news stories to exceptionally short deadlines. It will allow him to be less censorious of the hard-working hacks who bring us the latest on … himself, for example. He will also understand the need to provide the press and broadcast media with unambiguous lines of information. Putting a heavy spin on every story quickly dissipates the credibility of the messenger.

Jobson quotes a senior courtier, “A key skill for him to learn, the Queen believes, is to disguise his feelings, like politicians. His father has never really managed to achieve this.”

William and Kate are expected to take a three-week break when his Royal Navy secondment finishes next week. I don’t imagine he will want to fly back to the Caribbean so soon after his deployment, so we may hear of a fresh destination for their holiday. I’m told Montana is very refreshing at this time of the year.

The article serves as a useful reminder of William’s schedule for the next two years. One thing’s for sure, there’s no obvious reason to postone that much anticipated Royal wedding.

The military should have taught Prince William how to make crisp decisions. Now is the time for crispness. Limpness is not an option.