This afternoon, Tony Blair will announce major troop withdrawals from Iraq. He’s expected to say that up to half of British forces in the south of Iraq will be pulled out by the end of the year, one-quarter in the spring when the normal changeover of brigades and regiments is due.

There are strong rumours circulating that an armoured brigade will not now be going. Since Harry’s troop is part of an armoured reconnaissance force, there is a possibility that the Blues and Royals will be spared this deployment.

To see what’s going on you have to look at the psychology of the situation. Iraq is a millstone around Blair’s neck. It has wrecked his already damaged premiership. Would he want to be remembered in his last few months in office as the man who sent the popular Prince Harry to his death? I don’t think so.

The Government is spinning that Harry will go, only for Blair’s partial withdrawal to spare him at the last moment, thus saving Harry’s pride and making Blair look good.

That’s my reading of the situation. I know it’s at odds with other opinions and spin coming from the MoD, but it’s typical of Blair’s way of working.

Yesterday, the eminent historian Andrew Roberts wrote an article stating that he thought it would do Harry good to be deployed and would be “the making of him”. There’s no doubt that if he survived, he would come back a much more confident and mature man. If he didn’t, Tony Blair and the Defence Secretary would be toast.

We won’t know the final details until next Monday when the Defence Secretary announces the deployments to Parliament. We’re guessing that Harry won’t go, or a much lesser, face-saving role will be found for him.

To prove we don’t just publish favourable stories about Prince William and Kate Middleton, here’s a link to our Aristocracy Anecdotes webtitle which is featuring some real bile against them.

Tamara, 22, and Petra, 18, socialite daughters of billionaire Formula One owner, Bernie Ecclestone, have a real pop at the Princes in an interview with a German newspaper. Example : “Prince William has a face like a horse.” Neigh, surely not.

Read it here.

In a poll commissioned by Fox’s Biscuits Kate Middleton came top in a list of “natural beauties”. The top ten is :

Top 10 Natural Beauties

1. Kate Middleton
2. Charlotte Church
3. Claudia Schiffer
4. Kate Moss
5. Catherine Zeta Jones
6. Keira Knightley
7. Gwyneth Paltrow
8. Scarlett Johansson
9. Beyonce
10. Victoria Beckham

This shows that Kate, as ever, has the support of the British people who admire her unaffected charms. It’s surprising that Chelsy Davy fails to show up, trailing the totally unnatural, Siamese-cat-like Victoria Beckham. Personally, I would dismiss eight of them, leaving only Kate and Gwyneth Paltrow.

The majority of men surveyed apparently said they preferred women to be natural rather than adopt the plastic Hollywood look. Francesca Davies, Fox’s innovations manager, said: “These findings finally dispel the myth that all men are attracted to plastically enhanced women, which is a great relief for all the ‘natural’ women out there! Kate Middleton is a true natural beauty whether in designer or high street wear.”

The most unnatural “beauties” were listed as : Jordan, Abi Titmuss, Paris Hilton, Jade Goody and Jodie Marsh.

The Kate Middleton show still beats ‘em all.

Interviewed Sunday morning on the BBC, the Prime Minister did not deny that an announcement would be made soon of a massive cut in British forces in the south of Iraq.

The rumour is that the Defence Secretary will announce to Parliament, on February 26, a 50 percent reduction in force numbers, and that an armoured unit will not now be sent. It’s just conceivable that that will include the armoured reconnaissance units of the Blues and Royals, one of which Prince Harry commands.

So Harry fans may rejoice after all that their hero may just be saved the dangers of Iraq. There’s still the question of Afghanistan grumbling away in the background, though.

Update : Christopher Leake in the Mail on Sunday is stating that Prince Harry will go to Iraq in the spring : “Officials have confirmed that he will travel to southern Iraq with his regiment and see active duty when it is deployed, as expected, during the next changeover of forces. ”

Leake also reports : “A senior aide said: ‘Harry will be going to Iraq. However, no decision has yet been taken about when he will go and where he will serve.’ ”

But, if the changeover doesn’t take place, will that information apply? The present British Government is well known for its left hand remaining in total ignorance of what its right hand is up to, so it’s feasible we’re seeing a classic cock-up here. Only time will tell.

Update 2 : Harry “will deploy to Iraq as part of the 1st Mechanised Brigade, which is due to arrive in Basra in the spring for a six-month tour. ”

However, “A Ministry of Defence spokesman said: ‘This is speculation and the final decisions on which units are going have still to be made.’ ”

In the light of persistent rumours that the Mechanised Brigade will not now be deployed, and Tony Blair’s refusal this morning to deny the rumours, what are we to make of it all? Your guess is as good as mine.

Could this be a face-saving operation for Prince Harry to keep him onside and in the Army? Your guess is as good as mine.